EUR/NZD is testing a make-or-break level for its six-month uptrend!
Will we see a downside breakout in the next trading sessions?
Or will the bulls step in to defend the level for another time?
EUR/NZD: Daily
EUR/NZD Daily Forex Chart by TradingView
The euro has been making pips rain on the New Zealand dollar for most of the back half of 2025, helped by European Central Bank (ECB) members sounding pretty comfortable with where rates are and signaling that they’re in no rush to cut further, at least for now.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) flipped the script last week when it signaled that its own easing cycle is done.
EUR/NZD, which has been riding an ascending channel pattern for months, turned lower from the 2.0650 zone and slid all the way down to the 2.0225 area.Remember that directional biases and volatility conditions in market price are typically driven by fundamentals. If you haven’t yet done your fundie homework on the New Zealand dollar and the euro, then it’s time to check out the economic calendar and stay updated on daily fundamental news!
As you can see, EUR/NZD is now sitting right on a support zone. Prices line up with the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement of November’s upswing and the bottom of the ascending channel that has held firm since early June.
A couple more red candlesticks and steady trading below 2.0200 could shift the tone to bearish and pull the pair toward lower areas of interest like 2.0100 or even the 2.0000 psychological level.
But if we get green candlesticks and a clean bounce off that channel support, EUR/NZD could swing right back toward the 2.0500 mid-channel zone and its previous consolidation area, maybe even taking a shot at fresh 2025 highs above 2.0700.
What do you think? Which way will EUR/NZD go in the next trading sessions?
Whichever bias you end up trading, don’t forget to practice proper risk management and stay aware of top-tier catalysts that could influence overall market sentiment.
Disclaimer:
Please be aware that the technical analysis content provided herein is for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as trading advice or a suggestion of any specific directional bias. Technical analysis is just one aspect of a comprehensive trading strategy. The technical setups discussed are intended to highlight potential areas of interest that other traders may be observing. Ultimately, all trading decisions, risk management strategies, and their resulting outcomes are the sole responsibility of each individual trader. Please trade responsibly.