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BOC wraps up 2025 with markets expecting rates to steady at 2.25%, as recent strong labor market data has given the Bank reason to pause after months of cuts.

With the latest round of U.S. jobs figures mostly coming in below expectations, traders appear to be bracing for yet another 0.25% rate cut from the Fed. Will they deliver?

Markets retreated Monday ahead of the Fed’s final 2025 meeting, with stocks declining 0.3% and bonds selling off while bitcoin surged 2.2% and oil dropped nearly 2%.

The Fed’s rate decision dominates this week, with markets pricing a third consecutive 25bp cut after weak U.S. jobs data and conflicting labor market signals.

With markets expecting the RBA to keep rates at 3.60%, the real action lies in any hints they drop about potentially cutting rates in early 2026.

December’s first week brought the dollar’s worst tumble since September, surprising Australian dollar strength despite GDP disappointments, and conflicting employment data further complicating Fed rate cut expectations.

Markets treaded water Thursday ahead of next week’s Fed decision, with oil rallying on geopolitical tensions while Bitcoin slumped and equities hovered near record highs.

The November 2025 ISM reports just dropped, & they’re painting a mixed picture of the U.S. economy. Let’s dive deeper into what the numbers are really telling us.

Markets see an 84% chance the BOC stays on hold December 10, making the November jobs report the last data point that could move those odds.

U.S. private payrolls fell 32K in November versus 15K expected, sending dollar tumbling against all majors as Fed cut odds surged.