Bitcoin’s been flexing harder than a gym influencer on TikTok lately, and everyone’s wondering: “What’s behind this strong move?”
Spoiler alert: It’s not just one thing. It’s multiple bullish forces stacking up at once.
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high (ATH) last Thursday, closing at a little over $111,000.
Its price action shows a clear uptrend starting around mid-April. Bitcoin’s price skyrocketed from around $76,000 to a peak near $112,000, a significant rally of over 47% in about a month!
There’s been a slight pullback from the peak and could indicate some profit-taking or a minor retracement, but as long as the price remains above the 10 SMA, the uptrend is still intact.
The overall outlook remains bullish unless the price closes below the 50 SMA.
Let’s break down why bitcoin’s been climbing harder than a gym bro chasing a new personal record.
New to crypto? Learn the basics at our School of Crypto. Our beginner-friendly online course simplifies Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. No prior experience needed!
The Key Drivers: What’s Actually Moving Bitcoin’s Price?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant inflows! 💼
Remember when Wall Street treated bitcoin like a sketchy street magician trying to sell them “magic internet money”? Fast forward to today, and those same suits are practically trampling each other to get in line.
After a slower start to the year, net inflows rebounded strongly in May, with over $5 billion added by late May.
Spot bitcoin ETFs surged to their highest weekly trading volume of 2025 last week, fueled by rising BTC prices that drove fresh inflows.
These spot ETFs absorbed $1.2 billion, with funds like BlackRock’s IBIT extending an impressive 30-day streak without major outflows.
Corporate Treasuries: “Hold My Cash, I’m Going In” 🏢
Here’s where it gets really spicy. Companies aren’t just dabbling anymore. They’re going full YOLO with their treasury reserves.
MicroStrategy (now calling themselves “Strategy” because subtlety is overrated) bought 7,390 BTC last week. And just added another 4,020 BTC today! Meanwhile, Metaplanet said “hold my sake” and bought 1,004 BTC.
These aren’t gambling addicts having a moment. These are serious corporations treating bitcoin like a legitimate alternative to keeping cash under the mattress.
When companies start diversifying their treasuries with bitcoin, this creates sustained buying pressure that didn’t exist before.
U.S. Dollar Weakness💵
The U.S. dollar has been looking about as strong as a wet paper towel lately, and that’s actually fantastic news for bitcoin.
The weakness is due to a clusterfudge of heightened fiscal concerns, escalating trade tensions, and a major credit rating downgrade.
Bitcoin has historically thrived when traditional currencies show weakness, and right now, the dollar is giving off serious “I need to find myself” vibes.
Favorable Macroeconomic Environment 🌎
China decided to juice its economy by cutting bank reserve requirements by 0.5% and dropping its key policy rate. Translation: They just released about $139 billion in fresh liquidity into the system.
When central banks start the money printers, that cash has to go somewhere. And increasingly, “somewhere” includes bitcoin. It’s like being at a casino where the house keeps giving everyone free chips. Eventually, some of that money finds its way to the crypto tables.
Plus, the U.S. had softer inflation data in April, which has everyone feeling more optimistic about risk assets. Even Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating has fueled growing interest in bitcoin, as investors increasingly seek alternatives to traditional financial assets amid rising fiscal and political uncertainties.
Regulators: From “Bitcoin Bad” to “Bitcoin… Maybe?” ⚖️
U.S. lawmakers are moving forward with a stablecoin regulatory framework.
Both the House and Senate have advanced key legislation, the STABLE Act and the GENIUS Act, which would establish a federal oversight system for stablecoin issuers. The GENIUS Act is making progress in the Senate. President Trump and his team are sending crypto-friendly signals.
This isn’t just about deregulation. It’s about clear rules. And clear rules mean institutions can finally participate without their lawyers having panic attacks.
On-Chain Analysis: What the Blockchain Data is Saying 📊
Time to peek under Bitcoin’s hood and see what the blockchain data is actually telling us.
On-chain analysis is the process of evaluating Bitcoin’s blockchain data to assess market sentiment and potential price movements. Read our “Beginner’s Guide to On-chain Analysis” to learn more.
Here are several on-chain metrics currently providing bullish signs:
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)
NUPL measures the percentage of Bitcoin’s market cap that represents unrealized profits or losses, reflecting market sentiment and potential price reversals.
NUPL is in the “Belief/Denial” zone, around 60%–70%, suggesting most holders are in profit but not yet at extreme greed levels.
Bitcoin’s NUPL suggests a strong bull market with significant unrealized profits, but the market is approaching a zone where corrections have historically occurred.
While the rally may continue if sentiment remains positive, a move into “Euphoria/Greed” (NUPL > 75%) would signal heightened risk of a pullback.
You should monitor for signs of overextension, such as a rapid price surge or a spike in NUPL, which could indicate a market top.
MVRV Z-Score
MVRV Z-Score is a metric used to assess whether bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to its “realized value.”
The MVRV Z-Score sits between 2-3, significantly lower than previous cycle peaks. This places bitcoin in neutral-to-moderate valuation territory, neither deeply undervalued nor dangerously overextended.
This neutral territory often signals we’re still in the middle innings of a bull cycle, with potential for further upside before a major top is reached.
Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures whether bitcoin sellers are making a profit or loss when they move coins.
It calculates the profit level of all spent bitcoins over a specific period by comparing their selling price to their original purchase price (as recorded on the blockchain).
SOPR is slightly positive (around 0.05–0.1), indicating that, on average, coins moved on-chain are being sold at a profit.
This reflects a healthy, bullish market since most coins are moving at a profit and provides a positive market sentiment.
The Trump Card: A Potential Plot Twist 🧨
While bitcoin’s been riding high on all these bullish drivers, there’s one elephant in the room: IF President Trump decides to crank up the tariff machine beyond current levels.
Nothing kills a crypto rally quite like a full-blown “risk-off” environment.💀
Higher tariffs typically spark retaliatory measures, creating global economic uncertainty. When uncertainty spikes, risk assets (yes, including bitcoin) often get sold first and asked questions later.
An argument can be made that persistent tariffs or a trade war could weaken the U.S. dollar, potentially increasing bitcoin’s appeal as an alternative store of value. But this positive effect is less immediate and not guaranteed.
The Reality Check: What Happens Next? 🔮
Bitcoin’s current rally isn’t built on hopium and memes this time (well, not entirely).
It’s got real institutional backing, corporate adoption, improving regulatory clarity, favorable macro, and solid on-chain metrics.
The fundamentals look stronger than a coffee shop’s Wi-Fi password policy.
That said, bitcoin is still bitcoin! It remains highly volatile, capable of swinging from euphoria to panic faster than fleeting trends like the Labubu craze.
This content is strictly for informational purposes only and does not constitute as investment advice. Trading any financial market involves risk. Please read our Risk Disclosure to make sure you understand the risks involved.