Imagine a stadium full of recent concert-goers who each bought their tickets at different prices over the past few months.
- The current ticket price is what someone would pay if they walked up and bought a ticket today.
- The average purchase price is what these recent attendees actually paid for their tickets.
STH-MVRV is like comparing today’s ticket price to the average price paid by everyone who bought a ticket in the last five months:
- If today’s ticket price is higher than what most people paid, the crowd is “in profit” and they could resell their tickets for more than they spent.
- If today’s ticket price is lower, the crowd is “at a loss” and they’d have to sell for less than they paid.
Just as a high resale value might tempt people to sell their tickets (take profits), a low resale value might make them hold onto their tickets or even regret buying them (realizing losses).
The STH-MVRV ratio works the same way for bitcoin: it measures whether recent buyers are, on average, in profit or at a loss, helping to gauge market sentiment and potential behavior.
📖 What is Short Term Holder MVRV?
Short Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) is an on-chain metric used to gauge the average profit or loss of bitcoin held by short-term holders.
It is a specialized version of the broader MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, but focuses exclusively on coins that have moved recently, making it more sensitive to short-term market dynamics.
How STH-MVRV Is Calculated
- Market Value: Current Bitcoin price × circulating supply of short-term held coins
- Realized Value: Sum of acquisition prices (cost basis) of all Bitcoin held by short-term holders
- STH-MVRV Formula: Market Value of STH coins ÷ Realized Value of STH coins
In simpler terms, it’s the current Bitcoin price divided by the average acquisition price for short-term holders.
The MVRV ratio measures how much profit or loss the average short-term Bitcoin holder (typically those who acquired BTC within the past ~155 days) is holding:
- STH-MVRV > 1.0: Short-term holders are in profit (higher values = greater profit).
- STH-MVRV < 1.0: Short-term holders are at a loss (lower values = greater loss).
- STH-MVRV = 1.0: Breakeven point, often acting as psychological support/resistance.
🔍 How to Read the Chart
This chart titled “BTC: Short Term Holder MVRV” shows two key metrics over time:
- 🟠Orange Line: Short Term Holder MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value)
- ⚫ Black Line: BTC Price in USD
📈 Interpreting the Chart
- Peaks in MVRV (Orange Line) often coincide with or precede market tops. When short-term holders have high unrealized gains (MVRV > 2), they tend to sell, adding selling pressure.
- Troughs in MVRV (below 1.0) tend to align with market bottoms, signaling capitulation or accumulation zones when short-term holders are underwater.
- For example:
- In 2018, 2020, 2022, and late 2023, we see MVRV dipping below 1, correlating with Bitcoin price lows.
- Spikes above 2 in 2017, early 2021, and 2024 correspond to local BTC price tops.
In the shown chart, we can observe:
- During April 2025, STH-MVRV dropped to 0.82, indicating short-term holders faced an average 18% unrealized loss.
- Such levels historically coincide with market bottoms and periods of capitulation, after which long-term holders typically accumulate more BTC.
Comparison with Long-Term Holder MVRV
| Metric | Timeframe | Sensitivity | Typical Use Case |
|---|---|---|---|
| STH-MVRV | < 155 days | High | Short-term sentiment, capitulation |
| LTH-MVRV | > 155 days | Lower | Macro trends, accumulation phases |
🧠 Why Traders Care
Support & Resistance:
- The 1.0 level often acts as a pivot point for price action, helping traders identify potential reversal or continuation zones
Market Timing and Trend Analysis:
- When STH-MVRV rises above 1, it can signal the start of an uptrend.
- When it falls significantly below 1.0, it signals substantial unrealized losses among recent buyers, historically aligning with market capitulation and potential price bottoms.
- Sharp declines often precede price reversals as weaker hands capitulate and long-term holders accumulate.
🟠Summary Table
Short Term Holder MVRV is a ratio that reveals whether recent Bitcoin buyers are, on average, in profit or at a loss.
The metric is sensitive to recent market moves and is popular among short-term traders for its ability to reflect immediate sentiment shifts.
| MVRV Range | Interpretation | Potential Signal |
|---|---|---|
| < 1.0 | Short-term holders are at a loss | Possible market bottom |
| ~1.0 | Break-even zone | Neutral |
| > 1.5 | Moderate unrealized gains | Caution: potential pullback |
| > 2.0 | High unrealized gains | Caution: possible local top |