Imagine a rare comic book convention where two types of collectors mingle: the casual enthusiasts who frequently trade issues based on current hype, and the dedicated archivists who have preserved pristine collections for decades.
When these veteran collectors, who normally resist market whims, suddenly begin displaying their prized issues in the “for sale” section, experienced buyers take notice.
This unusual behavior often signals that valuations have reached unsustainable heights or that prices have fallen so dramatically that even the most devoted collectors are reconsidering their positions.
The Long Term Holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) serves as this same bellwether in the Bitcoin market.
By measuring whether Bitcoin’s most steadfast holders are sitting on substantial profits or rare losses, it provides early warning signals of market extremes that casual participants might miss entirely.
📖 What is Long Term Holder MVRV?
Long Term Holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) is a specialized version of the MVRV ratio focusing exclusively on bitcoin held by long-term holders, specifically, coins that have not moved for more than 155 days.
The metric is calculated as:
LTH-MVRV = Market Value of LTH Coins / Realized Value of LTH Coins
Where:
- Market Value: Current price × number of coins held by long-term holders
- Realized Value: Average acquisition price of long-term holders (when coins last moved on-chain)
The Long Term Holder MVRV measures the ratio of market value to realized value for bitcoin held by long-term holders (typically holding >155 days). It reflects how much profit or loss long-term investors are sitting on.
- MVRV > 1.0 → Long-term holders are in profit.
- MVRV < 1.0 → Long-term holders are at a loss (rare).
- Extremely high values → May signal market tops due to high unrealized profits.
Long Term Holder MVRV isolates the profit/loss position of bitcoin’s most patient investors, the “diamond hands.”
By tracking when these holders are in profit or loss, LTH-MVRV helps identify periods of market euphoria (potential tops) and capitulation (potential bottoms), offering valuable context for traders.
🔍 How to Read the Chart
This chart titled “BTC: Long Term Holder MVRV” compares two key metrics over time:
- 🟠 Orange Line: Long Term Holder MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value)
- ⚫Black Line: BTC Price (in USD)
📈 Interpreting the Chart
- Historical peaks in LTH-MVRV (e.g., 2013, 2017, 2021) align closely with major bull market tops.
- Troughs (around 1.0 or lower) have historically signaled deep bear markets or prime accumulation zones.
- The shaded zones provide visual context:
- 🔴 Red Zone (~MVRV > 20): Euphoric levels of profit – often local tops or bubbles.
- 🟢 Green Zone (~MVRV < 1.0-1.5): Historically undervalued periods.
Comparison with Short-Term Holder MVRV
| Metric | Timeframe | Sensitivity | Typical Use Case |
|---|---|---|---|
| STH-MVRV | < 155 days | High | Short-term sentiment, capitulation |
| LTH-MVRV | > 155 days | Lower | Macro trends, accumulation phases |
🧠 Why Traders Care
- Long-term holders are considered smart money. Their profit/loss behavior can be a leading indicator of major market shifts.
- A rising LTH-MVRV means long-term holders are increasingly in profit, a risk for profit-taking.
- A low LTH-MVRV means fear, capitulation, and often accumulation by strong hands.
- The realized price for long-term holders often acts as a psychological price level (support/resistance) in the market.
- Extreme readings have historically marked major turning points in Bitcoin’s price cycles
🟠 Summary Table
LTH-MVRV isolates the profit and loss profile of long-term bitcoin holders, focusing on the behavior of the most committed participants.
| MVRV Range | Interpretation | Potential Signal |
|---|---|---|
| < 1.0 | LTHs at a loss (rare) | Deep undervaluation / bottom |
| 1.0-2.0 | Modest profit | Accumulation / recovery |
| 2.0-10.0 | Growing unrealized profits | Healthy bull trend |
| 10.0-20.0 | Significant unrealized profits | Caution: late-stage bull run |
| > 20.0 | Euphoria phase | Probable market top |