The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) just dropped interest rates by 0.25% as everyone kinda expected, but they totally ghosted us on any future chill vibes for more rate cuts. 😬

So, like, which Kiwi moves bossed up from just chilling on the watchlist, and how did the market's mood swings totally change the game?

Watchlists are like those strategy chats mixing vibes from both hard facts and charts, super important before you whip up a super lit trading plan. 💡

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We’re diving into our NZD setups this week, seeing how each pair flexed after the RBNZ decision had less chill while everyone braced themselves for the drama and cash-out vibes during Thanksgiving. 🦃

The Setup

What We Were Watching: RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement (November 2025)

• Expectation: RBNZ was gonna snip those rates from 2.50% to 2.25%
• Data outcome: Central bank did the rate snip snip by 25 basis points, no surprises there 🚀
• Market environment surrounding the event: Vibes rebounding from early week blues, recovering after last week's stock market tumble and gearing up to snag profits before the long turkey weekend

Event Outcome

The RBNZ cut its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the policy squad voting 5-1 for the trim, while one rebel was like “nah, let's just chill at 2.50%.”

Key Takeaways:

• RBNZ cut OCR by 25bp to 2.25%  with a 5-1 vote, dissenter wasn’t feelin' it though 🏦
• Annual CPI at 3.0% in September, but keep your eyes peeled, it's predicted to dip to around 2% by mid-2026 ⏳
• The official guess is that OCR will just vibe at 2.20% through 2026, bottoming out in early '26
• The economy's sending good vibes with a settling labor market and peppier spending
• The Squad signals balanced risks, basically saying “chill, no more cuts unless things go off the rails.”

During the q&a sesh, outgoing RBNZ boss guy Christian Hawkesby hit us with a way less chill vibe than previous hangouts. He said they’re going with “a forecast suggesting rates will just chill through 2026 and that risks are literally balanced.” 🤷‍♂️

Fundamental Bias Triggered: Bullish NZD vibes

Broad Market and Exogenous Drivers:

Risk Recovery on Dovish Fed Narrative (Monday-Tuesday): With cautious good vibes rolling in Monday, the high-yield squad dusted themselves off from last week's low-key massacre, thanks to new chill Fed commentary. This mood lasted the next day as late U.S. releases painted a pretty meh picture of the economy during the gov shutdown.

Love for risk also got a boost from geopolitics, with progress being made on the Ukraine-Russia front and the U.S. prez flexing on their latest framework bringing the discussion points way down.

Pre-Thanksgiving Positioning (Wednesday): Risk-on vibes lasted until mid-week, as players were locking in before dipping out for the extended U.S. and Canada weekend, with a Fed Beige Book that kept December rate cut dreams alive.

Rumor has it, Kevin Hassett could be the next big shot at the Fed Chair. The thought of him taking the wheel added to the cozy prospects of lower borrowing costs.

Thanksgiving Spike (Thursday-Friday): What should’ve been a low-key liquid vibe at the week's end flipped into a rollercoaster, thanks to a CME technical snag. The vibe shift drew in profit-lovers, especially in the U.K. post-budget talk, as Fed rate cuts bets fired up.

Word of Trump nudging Japan to go easy on China stirred the risk pot on Thursday too, with the Loonie stacking wins from a surprise Canadian GDP bump, and the Kiwi flexing on solid retail sales numbers.

Scenario Scorecard: How Did They Play Out?

NZD/JPY: Bullish Event Outcome + Risk-On Scenario = Bet your bottom dollar on scoring a net positive!

NZD/JPY 1-hour Forex Chart by TradingView

Our crew anticipated an upward zig-zag pullback on NZD/JPY, lurking around the mid-channel and pivot zones. As the RBNZ took a less dovish turn, this pair primed up for a potential breakout towards the resistance.

The RBNZ’s 0.25% rate cut, paired with no hints of further reductions, sparked an epic Kiwi jump. The overall market vibe played up Kiwi's positivity, spurred by lower U.S. borrowing cost anticipations and decent global developments. NZD/JPY turned out to be the solid pick for leaving behind the watchlist, embracing due diligence vibes and lining up some risk themes. 🌟

Following the sharp uptick post-event, NZD/JPY tested R1 (88.66) within hours of the announcement, retaining its upward momentum. This was helped by extended risk-take behaviors, eventually challenging the R2 Pivot resistance (89.53). A brief Thanksgiving pullback took place, although momentum picked up post-channel top retest, staying true to initial risk themes.

Not Eligible to move beyond Watchlist – NZD/CAD & Bearish NZD Setups

NZD/CAD: Bullish Event Outcome + Risk-Off Scenario

NZD/CAD 1-hour Forex Chart by TradingView

This Kiwi duo was diggin' its descent in the channel before RBNZ's big announcement. We hoped for a bullish breakout if RBNZ seemed more chill in a risk-off scene.

Despite NZD’s bullish shift, overall positive vibes tilted towards risk – plumped up by Ukraine-Russia progress and traders banking on soft Fed word and maybe Hassett getting crowned as Fed boss. So, a long play on NZD/CAD wasn't the vibe we signed up for moving past the watchlist. 🚫

NZD/CAD quickly cut through R1 (.7967), our entry benchmark, and dashed past key .8000, settling under this fancy roof as CAD fought back in the risk-on scene. The pair climbed gently towards R2 (.8028) yet paused due to Canada’s surprise GDP dragging NZD/CAD a notch back to .8000 on Friday.

NZD/CAD: Bearish Event Outcome + Risk-On Scenario

NZD/CAD 1-hour Forex Chart by TradingView

The squad was vibing to NZD/CAD’s downtrend, keeping their eyes peeled for retracement action if RBNZ acted bearish, while Canada stayed toasty with inflation, bolstered by a nifty U.S. retail sales run.

Though the bear vibes were crushed pretty quick by RBNZ's hawkish move and NZD/CAD breaking past its resistance line. The whole bearish scenario fizzled, with both fundamental and technical short vibes not moving forward past the watchlist. 🌧️

The pair barely dipped below .8000 even with oils gaining ground, likely because NZ dropped upbeat retail sales and business confidence scores, and the U.S. long weekend limited CAD's climb despite hot GDP prints. NZD/CAD chilled over .8000, over 100 pips above pre-RBNZ vibes.

NZD/USD: Bearish Event Outcome + Risk-Off Scenario

NZD/USD 1-hour Forex Chart by TradingView

Earlier this week, our analysts leaned on rising odds the Fed would chill on December cuts, using China-Japan gossip to keep the NZD/USD’s downtrend rocking if the RBNZ went soft. 🌊

However, that bias lost steam when U.S. vibes leaned toward December rate cuts and tensions between China and Japan didn’t beef up. Got completely wiped when RBNZ’s cut played out bullish for NZD, letting NZD/USD break through resistance, blocking the steps to move beyond a watchlist setup. 🚫

NZD/USD faced pullbacks, but cool Kiwi data plus a lack of Fed doubters upheld the Kiwi's stronghold, closing firm above .5700, towering over trendline zones.

The Verdict

The less-dovish-than-expected RBNZ talk and slimmer odds of deeper cuts aided bullish Kiwi scenarios. NZD/JPY won the ticket out of the watchlist club based on its technical vibes and general risk-on aura present during the event.

Heavy swings early in the week, mostly due to the dovish vibes from the Fed with backups from geopolitical stuff (Ukraine-Russia, Japan-China) lifted higher-yield currencies while pushing the safe-play Yen into shadows.

Mostly underwhelming U.S. data and Fed Beige Book, alongside chats about pro-stimulus Kevin Hassett manning Fed HQ, kept risk trading bubbly through Thanksgiving. These scenes allowed NZD/JPY to tap its wishlist target before the long weekend, even as liquidity tightness, CME glitches, and cash-out sprees dialed in some volatility vibes. 🎢

Overall, we rate our watchlist convos as “highly likely” in setting a positive scene. The risk-on world, pepping higher-yield currencies alongside the RBNZ's surprising takes, birthed anticipated event reactions, enabling watchlist setups to unfold through the week. 🎯

Catching the pair slacklining mid-channel pre-event could fetch a good swing, maybe even surpassing channel resistance. Even post-announcement entry grabbers would stand a nice chance with NZD/JPY’s steady climb through successive trade windows. 😎

Risk management dances like trailing stops heightened protection, given that vibes could twist fiercely over Thanksgiving.

The week showed off the bangin’ power that comes with matching news catalysts (less dovish RBNZ talk) to risk feelz (ongoing dovish Fed chatter, geopolitical yaynays), sparking bold uni-d moves and opening room for snatching profits off major events.

Key Takeaways:

Consider Adding to Chill If Market Moods Are The Vibe

This week flexed how major event reactions feed off prevailing themes, propping up the set mood when later developments play along. Here, dovish Fed hints were ignited by Hassett buzzes, underlining muted U.S. prospects and gloomy Fed Beige Book.

Application: Scaling-in chill options can unlock maximum gains on uni-moves, notably when resistance caves, or pullbacks that promise more on risk return if wrapped with slick risk management tools like elevating stops or right-sizing positions.

Holiday liquidity matters

The Thanksgiving vibe tuned traders for profit grabs and popped the volatility switch in low-volume environments, stressing trailing stops and nimble position handles even when vibes held strong.

Application: In a solid bias period, holiday thinness can throw curvee surprise twists, so holiday weeks need cautious trading moves and sharp entry-exit acumen. Consider shedding trading weight around holidays by steepening stops, adjusting trades, or slashing gains before long pauses.

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