Yo fam, New Zealand is hittin' that all-time high of nine-year joblessness in Q3 2025, makin' them market peeps thinkin' 'bout anotha RBNZ rate cut. 📉

How’d our lit watchlist ideas do this week, and which NZD moves were vibin' with the market feels? 🤔

Watchlists are all about that price prediction and strategy talk, full of the hardcore analysis – both streetwise and nerdy – essential for cookin' up a fire trade idea before messin' with risk & trade management. 💼

Wanna keep up with our epic “Watchlist” picks the sec they drop through the week? Peep our BabyPips Premium subscribe page to get the 411! 🔔

We peepin' our NZD setups this week and how the pairs flexed after some meh job numbers, while headlines on trading and money moves were chargin’ the vibes. 🤯

The Setup

What We Had Our Eyes On: New Zealand Employment Report (Q3 2025)

• Expectation: Quarterly employment gonna bounce back 0.1% after last time's 0.1% drop
• Data outcome: Employment numbers stayed flat, keeping it real at 5.3% unemployment like we thought
• Market vibes at the event: Low-key risk-taking thanks to U.S. and China's truces, plus PROBABLE Fed cuts in December 'cause of weak U.S. job stats 💼

Event Outcome

New Zealand came in flat on job changes for Q3 2025, marking that nine-year high at 5.3% for unemployment. That workforce participation slid from 70.5% to 70.3%, not the best sign for market buzz. 📉

Key Takeaways:

• Unemployment rate: 5.3%, just as guessed, up from Q2’s 5.2%
• Employment change: 0.0% for the quarter (just missed that 0.1% increase folks were bettin’ on)
• Participation rate: Dropped to 70.3%, down from 70.5% in Q2
• Total unemployed: 160k peeps, including 22,700 who've been chillin' without work for over a year 😬
• Wage growth (private sector): On the come up, up 0.5% for the quarter and 2.1% for the year

The fact that employment barely budged means the crowd with jobs grew by 0.3%, soaked up by higher unemployment and fewer workers doin' their thing. Meanwhile, hours worked jumped by 0.9% for the quarter, hinting that bosses are askin’ their squads to hustle harder instead of recruit newbies. 🚀

Bearish vibes for NZD setups initiated: Read the room, kiddos. 📉

Market Buzz and What’s Goin’ Down:

FOMC aftermath and stock market chaos (Mon-Tues): With no major stimmy for the week’s start, traders were still shook from the kinda harsh FOMC drop, throwin’ on those mild risk-off hats as December cut hopes waned. Major economies were droppin’ bummer PMI figures, and worry 'bout U.S. stock values got some extra juice, extendin' risk aversion through to the next sessions. 🤯

Vibin’ switcharoo on trade progress (Wed): Midweek markets got a glow-up after Trump’s China tariff cuts and Beijing givin' U.S. peeps a break. Plus, the U.S. Supreme Court took a stab at Trump’s duties, lettin’ the safe-havens ease up. 🍿

U.S. jobs drama and policy plot twists, then shutdown feels (Thurs-Fri): Traders were dissectin' job data to scoop up the U.S. job sitch in the absence of official stats. The ADP report, ISM services PMI & Challenger job cuts info hinted at hiring saggin' in October, pumpin' cut predictions for December. 😬

However, some FOMC heads were playin’ it cool on more ease, taggin’ Fed head Powell’s old low-key remarks. China throwin' meh-data dampened risk-standoffs through Thursday and into early Friday. The vibes flipped Friday as news broke that the U.S. folks were working to prevent a gov shutdown. This supercharged the risk mood, helpin' stocks claw back losses and serving up that risk asset glow-up for the weekend jam. 🎉

Scenario Scorecard: How Things Shook Out?

GBP/NZD: Bearish Feels + Risk-On Vibes = Pretty decent odds for a boss move 🌟

GBP/NZD 1-hour Forex Chart Chart by TradingView

GBP/NZD was already chillin' above a descending trend vibe early in the week. Our geniuses were scoping for a bullish uptrend if NZ job numbers were sus. 📉

NZ’s wack employment data pushed GBP/NZD clear of the watchlist, holding up above the 200 SMA and 2.0300 psychological mark midweek. The pair kept swingin’ inside that short-range vibe for the rest of the sessions as sentiment perked and Kiwi got some cheer from trade progress news. 🌊

The bouncy uptrend stuck, even as BOE announced a chill split hold decision, overshadowed by mixed Fed talk, dim U.S. job signs, and blah Chinese trade reads. This amplified Kiwi's drop, allowing GBP/NZD to break through resistance zones, cruising past R1 (2.3141) then R2 (2.3336) before peaking 'round the 2.3400 psychological peak. 🚀

Candidates Unqualified for Bigger Moves – Bullish NZD Talks and NZD/JPY

NZD/JPY: Kiwi Dip + Risk-Off Vibe ⚡

NZD/JPY 1-hour Forex Chart Chart by TradingView

This pair dipped past some long-term highs and was crashin' through a descending trend vibe on the ol' hourly view, pushin' out sell pressure even before the NZ job dunk. 📉

There was more crashin' when the figures dropped softer than expected, pushing NZD/JPY down from S2 (86.90) to S3 (86.23) within mere hours post-drop, before the vibe shifted positive on U.S.-China handshakes. When risk feels leaned all about risk-on, NZD/JPY fell behind GBP/NZD in movin' beyond the list. ⚡

Market shifted when bad news hit Thursday after U.S. job cuts data. That sunk NZD/JPY back to S3 as Chinese meh-trade figures also dragged on. Even if not the numero uno for moves past the watchlist, NZD/JPY technically landed in good vibes thanks to Thursday’s risk feels. 🕶️

AUD/NZD: Pro-NZD Vibes + Risk-On Scene ✌️

AUD/NZD 1-hour Forex Chart Chart by TradingView

We setup AUD/NZD to spot even slight NZ job beats, before major fundamentals and money moves flexed to fuel the ongoing vibe. ⚡

With NZ’s unemployment spiking 5.3% and job growth moping around 0.0%, NZD power bit the dust & scrubbed AUD/NZD from list moves. Data bust this bearish reaction, with the pair powering on through highs at R1 (1.1480), boosted by earlier RBA’s hawk flex. Pos China-U.S. trade juice kept the Aussie buzzing above 1.1500. 🎉

Given both peep currencies’ tales, it's prolly not a shocker that AUD/NZD was a top choice for playin’ weak NZ job outcomes (over 1.5 daily ATR from event price). Traders gotta be chill to swing opinions, adapting for that info sway. 🔄

NZD/USD: Positive Pro-NZD Event + Risk-Off Vibe 📉

NZD/USD 1-hour Forex Chart Chart by TradingView

Had NZ delivered lit job statistics and vibes were risk-takin', we watched for a bounce from NZD/USD’s support zone. The pair already took the hit after Powell’s cheeky quotes last week, dropping to that 0.5700 vibe near S1 at 0.5690.

Instead, NZ jobs fig came weak, diving under S1 at 0.5690, instantly nullifying NZD/USD bullish feels both fundamentally and technically. NZD/USD hardly blinked as it slid down, assisted by poor U.S. job chops data to fuel the aversion to risk vibe, down and out!

The Verdict

Kiwi's bleh employment data ticked off bearish NZD vibes, with GBP/NZD jumpin’ from watchlist vibes as it found a spot thanks to the good vibes helpin’ it flex further up. The surprise lag in NZ hirin’ honked odds o' another RBNZ chop, drownin' even chillin’ BOE thoughts, as China news only added to that gloomy pic. 😒

The pair kept those gains as risk vibes flirted with caution, holding its pre-event stance and snatchin' upper levels later when aversion vibes returned, climbing swiftly through layers, rockin' the winning ways till week’s end. 🚀

All told, our chit-chat rated as “pretty probable” for some winning scenarios since bear NZD felt with some risk chillin' 'round helped GBP/NZD action into the weak job plot. The sturdy move didn't exactly need elaborate strategies for a successful outcome either. 🏆

Key Takeaways:

Multiple Scenes Can Click Positively

Even if NZD/JPY wasn't your VIP pick past the list, it still pulled in some theoretical wins when Thursday risk changes lined up with the NZD downer vibes. Having them varied play-based setups handy is lit, so whenever market changes strike different pairs, you are ready for action. 🔄

Bank On Sustained Breaks

Sometimes markets blaze through breakouts without hesitation, and Kiwi reactions on NZ’s weak gig news showed that. AUD/NZD's upward rally was fire 'cause of strong fundamentals, barreling through barriers instead of gamer pausing, which means you gotta have plans for true one-way moves instead of missin' out. 🚀

Guard Against Big Pic Drama

China's tariff drop mid-week was a headline-roller, swampin' the board for movin' commodities. Traders in NZD/JPY or AUD/NZD faced curveballs from unexpected China vibes trumping NZ’s weak job data. 🌐