The U.K.’s inflation, like, totally stayed chill at 3.8% y/y in September, which threw traders for a loop since they thought it would, like, at least hit 4.0%. 🤯

So, what’s poppin' with the British pound, and which one of our 👀 watchlist setups served the best trading tea?

Watchlists are all about the price vibe & strategy talks, backed by both fundamental & technical deets, a major step toward crafting a high-key solid trade idea 💡 before diving into risk & trade management drama.

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We’re diving into our GBP moves this week and how each pair fared after the U.K. CPI threw a cooler curveball amidst the market's flip-flopping vibes. 😳

The Setup

What We Were Keeping Tabs On: U.K. CPI Haps for September 2025

• The Expectation: U.K. CPI was supposed to pop off with a 4.0% y/y growth in September, hotter than the 3.8% August scene and, like, twice the Bank of England’s (BOE) goal.
• Data outcome: Main CPI stayed chill at 3.8% y/y, while core CPI slipped from 3.6% y/y to 3.5% y/y.
• Market buzz during the event: The main players took cues from their own drama as the vibe shifted around U.S.-China trade tea and geopolitical goss. 🤔

Event Outcome

U.K. inflation stayed chill at 3.8% y/y in September, catching everyone by surprise since the 4.0% prediction was what everyone expected, including the BOE. 😮

The biggest drop in prices came from food and drinks minus the booze, where things cooled off to 4.5% from August's 5.1%, the first chill-out since March. Prices for fun and culture also helped keep it cool, while transport costs did the opposite due to fuel prices and crazy air travel stuff. ✈️

The September inflation deets were a good surprise that might bring a November interest rate cut back in the convo, even though the streets are still cautious about jumping into aggressive rate-cut talks. 🤞

Key Takeaways:

• The Main CPI stayed steady 3.8% y/y in September, below the vibey 4.0% prediction.
• Core inflation (minus the food, energy, alcohol, and smoke stuff) eased to 3.5% from 3.6%.
• Service inflation held firm at 4.7%, below BOE’s expected 5.0% hike.
• Food inflation chilled at 4.5% from 5.1%, dropping for the first time since March.
• The market was tossing around a 75% chance of a BOE rate cut by end of the year, up from the previous 46% before these deets hit. 📊

Fundamental Vibes That Got Triggered: Bearish GBP setups 😬

Broad Market and Outside Vibes:

Tariff Drama Drag-On (Monday-Wednesday): First half of the week was like a soap opera with US-China dynamics, Trump shrugging off the latest trade spat with China and vibing positivity about his upcoming hangout with President Xi, saying all these high tariffs are just “not it.”

Russian Geopolitics Joins the Game (Midweek): As if trade headlines weren’t already mind-boggling, geopolitical tensions with good ol' Russia stepped into the limelight midweek when the Trump-Putin meet-up got canceled, and they threw sanctions over Russia’s big oil players.

Feel-good Vibes and Soft U.S. Inflation (Thursday-Friday): Markets flipped back to the good vibes mode ahead of the Trump-Xi meetup, holding onto hopes that these two can squash trade beef for good, igniting a risk rally while the dollar stumbled on soft Fed expectations from a depressing CPI run.

Meanwhile, with the ongoing government shutdown (that Trump swore would wrap up within the week) maintaining the data blackout, markets got even more focused on other bits of info, however limited. 📉

Scenario Scorecard: How Did They Play Out? 🏅

GBP: Bearish Event Vibe + Risk-Off Scene

= Decent odds for a net positive outcome 🤞

GBP/CHF: Big Bearish Event Vibes + Risk-Off Feels 🐻

GBP/CHF 1-Hour Forex Chart by TradingView

GBP/CHF wasn’t in our main gig lineup, but since we had no better setup planned, we thought we’d eyeball the most likely best possible setup based on Wednesday’s deets (like the chill U.K. CPI + a slight negative shift in general risk vibes). 😅

GBP/CHF was low-key drifting lower beneath a descending trend line but hanging around a short-term range between the big 1.0600 psychological level and the pivot point (1.0654) before the main event.

The pair hung tight just under the weekly Pivot Point and 100 SMA dynamic vibe change zone, which then held as a ceiling when price took a nosedive back to the floor after the U.K. CPI figures hit. Traders likely cashed in profits from the report as the nearby support stayed steady, but the pivot point barrier held back gains during later week testing. 🏦

From there, GBP/CHF caught onto stronger bearish juice, maybe with a little assist from the SNB’s first-ever minutes coming off less dovish, and the bearish twist in risk vibes thanks to rising geopolitical drama on Wednesday and Thursday. It was enough to send price plunging below intraweek lows, only to treat those as a new ceiling, before prices cratered to S1 (1.0573). 😵

Not Cutting the Watchlist Scene – Bullish GBP Setups 📉

GBP/JPY: Slightly Bullish Scenario + Risk-On Mood

GBP/JPY 1-Hour Forex Chart by TradingView

GBP/JPY caught the bounce vibes off the 202.10 Pivot Point and crushed through its descending channel resistance even before the U.K.’s CPI rundown, just as the watchlist vibe anticipated. But when inflation digits came up short, the upside setup was nuked. The pair slid back to the Pivot Point zone instead of pulling off the clean cut break and retest move traders had their eyes on. 📉

The guppy felt a vibe shift midweek when traders started geeking out about “Abenomics 2.0” on Thursday, throwing fuel on yen-weakness. By Friday, the spotlight turned to Japan’s inflation tale, with markets betting the data wasn’t spicy enough for any quick BOJ moves.

GBP/JPY wrapped up the week above the channel, but like, more from yen weakness than any solid grind from the pound.

GBP/NZD: Slightly Bullish GBP Scene + Risk-Off Vibes 🌬️

GBP/NZD 1-Hour Forex Chart by TradingView

Last week’s watchlist was peepin' GBP/NZD to keep its uptrend going from a potential pullback if the U.K.’s CPI was on the money. At that point, commdolls were feeling the pressure from U.S.-China trade squabbles, while expectations of a hotter U.K. inflation were giving the pound a lift. 🔥

But the U.K. CPI missed the party, totally blasting the GBP/NZD bullish dream. The absence of new tariff threats from Washington or Beijing also fueled demand for commdolls as overall risk vibes improved. 📈

GBP/NZD was already on a downward slide before the CPI deets slapped, dropping hard to around 2.3150 after the info dropped. The pair got a quick bump back to 2.3300, possibly due to U.S.-Russian geopolitical stir-ups, but traders soon refocused on the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, pushing risk assets (especially commdolls) up. GBP/NZD wrapped up the week close to its lows, totally below the watchlist’s hotspot.

GBP/USD: Super Bullish GBP Scene + Risk-On Scenario 💪

GBP/USD 1-Hour Forex Chart by TradingView

Cable’s upper breakout from a short-term double bottom pattern was like a beacon for our analysts, suggesting a cool retest setup ahead of the U.K. CPI prints. Yet, the actual results didn’t vibe with market expectations, totally axing the long GBP play. Easing U.S.-China trade jitters and a dip in gold prices also gave the USD some demand back later in the week. 📉

GBP/USD dipped below the pivot point level (1.3381) and 38.2% Fib support, both holding firm and pushing prices further down the Fib scale, onto the next support at S1 (1.3290). The pair got a slight bump back as risk perception improved, but that gain wasn’t it. GBP/USD kept its bearish lean and settled the week near its lows.

EUR/GBP: Super Bullish GBP Scene + Risk-Off Situation 💣

EUR/GBP 1-Hour Forex Chart by TradingView

EUR/GBP was forming higher lows and lower highs inside a symmetrical triangle, like it was hyping up for a downside break pre-event. But when weaker-than-expected CPI deets hit, the pair flipped higher, killing off the long GBP strategy. It bounced back hard toward the triangle's top boundary.

Resistance held at first, nudging EUR/GBP back to the Pivot Point at 0.8687. By Thursday, a medium Euro Area report pumped the euro, pushing the pair past R1 (0.8710) and flipping it into fresh support. From there, the bullish flow built as solid Euro Area PMI figures (outta Germany) kept the recovery theme alive despite peripherals dragging. 💶

EUR/GBP neared the next resistance at R2 (.8748) before week’s end, driven by Euro strength and pound slippage.

The Verdict

Our watchlist setups were mainly tuned to a steady or upbeat U.K. CPI gig, missing out on game plans for a possible downside surprise. In the end, a GBP/CHF short bias emerged as the MVP (most viable play 🔥) of the week, given the event result and the lowkey nervous market.

Risk sentiment turned out messier than expected, as everyone was juggling the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, tariff tantrums, trade-related optimism, and Russia drama. 🌀

In the scenario swinging mostly risk-off, the franc seemed like the steady mate for pound weakness while the usual safe-haven USD was directionless, and the yen was weighed by expectations of vibes-induced initiatives. 📉

Overall, we call our watchlist convos "not quite it" 🤷 since we didn’t peek into truly bearish GBP alternatives.

Pro Tip Takeaways: 🧠

Always Have a Backup Plan for the Low-Key Unexpected 🌟

Even if analysts and indicators signal likely outcomes, it’s totes chill to have a plan B if the scene unexpectedly flips, as it can unlock hefty moneymaking ops. 💸

In this case, a low number for U.K. CPI wasn’t the expected gig, considering the pricey fuel, airfare, and the effects hangin’ from April’s National Insurance hike, but the weaker reveal really fueled talks of dovish BOE moves and flipped the switch on sterling.

Stay Lit & Ready to Pivot Bias 💡

Being glued to specific setups based on an event vibe doesn’t mean ignoring the chance of price swinging the other way. For instance, watch for a potential triangle bust if U.K. CPI heats up, but keep an alternate bullish break in your toolbox if the results are a downer instead. 😉

Counter Currency Moves = Fresh Setup Vibes 🔥

Just 'cause a pair moves against your deets doesn’t mean the setup is toast. When the counter currency takes the wheel, it can switch things up and breathe life into forgotten levels.

Take last week’s trading drama. GBP/JPY closed above its hot zone mainly 'cause of weak yen action, not strong pound game. Meanwhile, EUR/GBP strayed from its preset bias but still flirted with key technical levels, like the triangle and Pivot Point resistance, along its path.

Consider revisiting those juicy areas of interest once your bias shifts – they can prove clutch for a countertrade. 📈