Fourth Turning

Ever wonder why history seems to repeat itself? The “Fourth Turning” theory gives us an intriguing explanation.

Developed by William Strauss and Neil Howe, this theory suggests that history doesn’t just march forward in a straight line…it moves in cycles, like the seasons of a year.

What is the Fourth Turning?

Imagine history as a giant carousel, completing one full rotation every 80-100 years (called a “saeculum“).

During each rotation, we experience four distinct periods or “turnings,” each lasting about 20-25 years and reflecting major shifts in how society views itself and its future.

Why is this theory gaining traction now? Well, when times get uncertain (economic troubles, political divisions, global conflicts), we naturally look for patterns to make sense of the chaos.

The “Fourth Turning” theory offers a framework suggesting that today’s turbulence isn’t random but part of a predictable historical pattern.

While this theory focuses mainly on Anglo-American history, the human desire to find patterns in time isn’t unique to Western thinking.

From ancient Chinese dynastic cycles to various cultural traditions, we humans love identifying rhythms in the seemingly chaotic flow of history.

The Building Blocks: Core Concepts of the Theory

Think of the “Fourth Turning” theory as a historical playlist that repeats every 80-100 years, with four distinct tracks:

The Four Turnings

Picture each turning as a season of history:

The High (First Turning) – Think of this as society’s springtime. It’s a post-crisis era of optimism, strong institutions, and community spirit. Everyone’s rebuilding together after weathering a major storm.
The Awakening (Second Turning) – Summer arrives with passionate heat. People start questioning institutions and focusing on personal growth. Think hippies in the 1960s saying, “The system is broken, man!”
The Unraveling (Third Turning) – Autumn brings decay. Trust in institutions withers, individualism flourishes, and society fragments into opposing groups who can’t seem to agree on anything.
The Crisis (Fourth Turning) – Winter arrives with its decisive challenges. A perceived threat to national survival forces people to band together again, rebuilding institutions and creating a new order.

The Generational Players

Each turning features four generational archetypes taking center stage:

Prophet generations (like Baby Boomers) are born after a crisis, grow up indulged, and become principle-focused adults.
Nomad generations (like Gen X) are born during an awakening, grow up under-protected, and become pragmatic survivors.
Hero generations (like Millennials) are born after an awakening, grow up increasingly protected, and tackle major crises as young adults.
Artist generations (like the Silent Generation) are born during a crisis, grow up overprotected, and become conformist, process-oriented adults.

The theory suggests these generations and turnings dance together in a predictable rhythm, though the exact timing and specific events can vary, like seasons that sometimes start early or late.

The Masterminds: Who Created This Theory?

The “Fourth Turning” theory emerged from the partnership of two fascinating individuals: William Strauss (a playwright) and Neil Howe (a historian and demographer).

Their collaboration kicked off in the late 1980s, driven by curiosity about why Baby Boomers and G.I. Generation folks saw the world so differently.

Their journey of discovery produced several influential books:

“Generations” (1991) – Their first deep dive into generational patterns.
“The Fourth Turning” (1997) – Where they fully developed their cyclical theory.
“Millennials Rising” (2000) – Focusing on the generation they believed would face the next crisis.
“The Fourth Turning Is Here” (2023) – Howe’s recent update (after Strauss’s passing), applying the theory to current events.

Their work has influenced fields from marketing to management, though it hasn’t escaped criticism. Some academics and journalists have questioned whether the theory is too deterministic or lacks sufficient empirical evidence.

The authors’ backgrounds in the humanities rather than quantitative social sciences likely shaped their approach, focusing more on historical narratives and patterns than statistical analysis.

Despite criticisms, their ideas continue to resonate with people seeking to understand today’s turbulent times.

Understanding Each Turning: A Closer Look

The High (First Turning)

Picture society after surviving a major crisis—everyone’s rebuilding with renewed optimism. During the High:

Community life flourishes
Institutions gain strength
Collective goals trump individual desires
People focus on planning for a bright future

Think of America after World War II (1946-1963), suburban neighborhoods expanding, interstate highways being built, and a general sense that “we’re all in this together.” The culture feels safe and stable, if a bit conformist and lacking in spiritual depth.

Other examples include America after the Revolutionary War and the “Era of Good Feelings” following the War of 1812, times when people focused on building rather than questioning.

The Awakening (Second Turning)

Imagine the teenagers of the stable First Turning growing up and saying, “There must be more to life than this!” During the Awakening:

Inner spiritual questions replace outer material concerns.
Young activists challenge established norms.
Individuals assert autonomy against institutions.
Society experiences a cultural and spiritual revolution.

The Consciousness Revolution of the 1960s-70s exemplifies this perfectly: Woodstock, civil rights marches, and rejection of “the establishment.”

Earlier examples include the Transcendental Movement and the Great Awakenings, which were periods when spiritual questions dominated public discourse.

The Unraveling (Third Turning)

Now, picture the pendulum swinging further toward individualism. During the Unraveling:

Trust in institutions reaches new lows.
Society fragments into polarized groups.
Leaders avoid tough decisions.
Individual freedom reaches its peak.
Public problems go unaddressed.

Recent examples include the Culture Wars of the 1980s-2000s, but similar patterns appeared before World War I and in the decades leading to both the Civil War and Revolutionary War.

During these periods, society seems increasingly unable to come together to solve major problems.

The Crisis (Fourth Turning)

Finally, the breaking point arrives. During the Crisis:

A perceived existential threat emerges.
Individualism gives way to collective action.
Society rallies around a common purpose.
Civic authority strengthens.
Major institutional restructuring occurs.

The Great Depression and World War II (1929-1945) represent a classic Fourth Turning, society completely reorganized itself in response to massive threats.

The American Revolution and Civil War mark earlier Crisis periods, when the nation’s very existence hung in the balance.

Many proponents of the theory believe we entered a new Crisis around 2008 with the financial collapse, with the potential climax in the 2020s-2030s.

American History Through the Fourth Turning Lens

Looking at American history through this four-season cycle reveals a fascinating pattern:

Saeculum	Turnings	Years	Key Events	Dominant Generation
Revolutionary	High	1704-1727	Augustan Age of Empire	Awakening (Prophet)
	Awakening	1727-1746	Great Awakening	Liberty (Nomad)
	Unraveling	1746-1773	Seven Years’ War	Republican (Hero)
	Crisis	1773-1794	American Revolution	Compromise (Artist)
Civil War	High	1794-1822	Era of Good Feelings	Transcendental (Prophet)
	Awakening	1822-1844	Transcendental Awakening	Gilded (Nomad)
	Unraveling	1844-1860	Sectionalism	Progressive (Artist)
	Crisis	1860-1865	Civil War	Missionary (Prophet)
Great Power	High	1865-1886	Reconstruction & Gilded Age	Lost (Nomad)
	Awakening	1886-1908	Progressive Era	G.I. (Hero)
	Unraveling	1908-1929	Roaring Twenties	Silent (Artist)
	Crisis	1929-1946	Great Depression & WWII	Boom (Prophet)
Millennial	High	1946-1964	Post-WWII Boom	Generation X (Nomad)
	Awakening	1964-1984	Consciousness Revolution	Millennial (Hero)
	Unraveling	1984-2008	Culture Wars	Homelanders (Artist)
	Crisis	2008-Present	Financial Crisis, Pandemic, Political Instability	Boomers (Prophet) & Millennials (Hero)

Each cycle lasts roughly 80 years, about the length of a long human life, with each turning lasting approximately 20 years. The timing isn’t exact (like seasons that arrive early or late), but the pattern persists.

According to the theory, today’s Millennials are the “Hero” generation, coming of age during a Crisis and expected to take collective action to resolve it, much like the G.I. Generation did during the Great Depression and World War II.

The Skeptics: Criticisms and Limitations

Not everyone finds the “Fourth Turning” theory convincing. Critics have raised several important concerns:

Where’s the proof? The theory lacks rigorous empirical evidence, relying more on selective historical examples than systematic data analysis.
Too deterministic? By suggesting history follows predictable cycles, critics argue the theory downplays individual choices, unexpected events, and other factors that shape history.
Conveniently flexible definitions? The somewhat fluid definitions of generations and turning points make the theory difficult to falsify; any historical event can potentially be interpreted to fit the framework.
Oversimplification alert! By focusing primarily on generational archetypes, the theory may underestimate other crucial factors like economic class, race, gender, and religion in shaping historical change.

Some historians have even described the theory as pseudoscientific, more like an “elaborate historical horoscope” than a testable scientific theory.

Alternative perspectives suggest that while patterns may exist in history, they’re not necessarily cyclic. As Mark Twain supposedly said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”

Specific historical events, influential leaders, and technological breakthroughs can dramatically alter historical trajectories beyond what any cyclical theory might predict.

The Ripple Effects: What This Theory Means for Society

If the “Fourth Turning” theory holds water, what does it mean for our society, politics, and economy?

For Society

During a Crisis period like the one we’re potentially experiencing now, the theory suggests:

Community bonds might strengthen as people face common threats.
Cultural expressions may increasingly reflect collective concerns.
Parents might become more protective of children.
Traditional values could see a resurgence.

For Politics

The theory anticipates:

Major political realignments.
The emergence of strong, decisive leadership.
A renewed emphasis on civic authority.
A potential “founding moment” that reshapes political institutions.

For Economy

We might expect:

Economic restructuring following financial crises.
Potentially more equitable wealth distribution in the long term.
Volatility that favors long-term investment strategies.
Technological innovation is spurred by crisis-driven needs.

The “Fourth Turning” view suggests that while crises bring hardship, they serve an essential function in breaking down outdated systems and creating space for renewal.

However, predictions about specific outcomes, like whether we’ll see a return to traditional gender roles or increased religious participation, remain speculative.

Today’s World Through the Fourth Turning Lens

Many followers of the theory believe we’re currently living through a Fourth Turning that began around 2008 with the financial crisis. From this perspective, recent major events like:

The 2008 financial collapse
Growing political polarization
The COVID-19 pandemic
Rising geopolitical tensions
Rapid technological change

All fit the pattern of a Crisis period. Proponents suggest these challenges will continue to intensify, potentially reaching a climax in the late 2020s or early 2030s, before resolving into a new High.

The theory might help explain why our current era feels so historically significant. We may indeed be living through one of those rare periods when societies fundamentally restructure themselves.

The Academic View

The “Fourth Turning” theory has received mixed reviews in academic circles.

While some scholars acknowledge its “bold and imaginative thesis,” many remain skeptical for several reasons:

The theory lacks the kind of systematic data analysis academics typically expect.
Its deterministic view clashes with historians’ emphasis on complexity and contingency.
The flexible timing of turnings raises questions about falsifiability.
Categorizing entire generations under broad archetypes seems oversimplified.

Most academics view history as far more nuanced than any cyclical model can capture, with countless variables interacting in complex ways.

Alternative models of historical cycles proposed by scholars like Arthur Schlesinger Sr., Frank Klingberg, and Peter Turchin use different methodologies and focus on different aspects of historical change.

The “Fourth Turning” theory remains more popular in public discourse than in academia, where it’s often viewed as an interesting narrative framework rather than a validated scientific theory.

Fourth Turning vs. Structural-Demographic Theory

Peter Turchin’s Structural-Demographic Theory (SDT) and Neil Howe’s Fourth Turning are two frameworks that seek to understand long-term cycles in history, particularly focusing on periods of societal crisis and transformation.

Although both theories propose that history follows recognizable patterns, they differ significantly in their methods, assumptions, and applications.

Turchin’s Structural-Demographic Theory is rooted in the field of cliodynamics, which combines history, sociology, and mathematical modeling to analyze large-scale social processes.

The theory examines structural forces such as population growth, economic inequality, elite overproduction, and state finances.
These factors interact over time to create conditions that can lead to political instability and even societal collapse.
Turchin uses historical data and measurable trends to test his model and make probabilistic forecasts about future unrest.

In contrast, the Fourth Turning, developed by Neil Howe and William Strauss, is part of a generational theory that focuses on the cultural and psychological shifts driven by different generations.

According to this view, history moves through four repeating phases: High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis.
Each phase lasts around 20 to 25 years and is shaped by the attitudes and experiences of the generation coming of age during that period.
The Crisis phase, or Fourth Turning, is seen as a time of intense upheaval that ultimately leads to the emergence of a new social order.

Despite their differences, both theories recognize that societies experience recurring cycles of stability and instability. They also share the idea that crises are not random events but are built up over time through underlying societal dynamics.

A major distinction lies in how each approach makes predictions.

Turchin relies on quantitative analysis, using data to model and forecast instability.
Howe’s approach, however, is more narrative-based, drawing from historical analogies and generational patterns.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Aspect	Structural-Demographic Theory	Fourth Turning
Methodology	Empirical and quantitative	Qualitative and narrative
Predictability	Statistically testable forecasts	Based on generational archetypes
Applicability	Broadly applicable across cultures and time periods	Focused mainly on Anglo-American societies
Criticism	May be overly deterministic	Lacks rigorous empirical support

The Fourth Turning serves as a metaphorical lens for interpreting history, inspiring narratives and broad patterns, while SDT is a scientific effort to uncover and test the underlying laws that drive societal change.

The former seeks meaning; the latter seeks measurable explanations.

The Bottom Line: A Balanced Perspective

The “Fourth Turning” theory offers a fascinating lens for understanding historical patterns and interpreting current events.

Its cyclical model of four distinct societal moods and four generational archetypes provides an intriguing framework for making sense of complex historical developments.

The theory’s current popularity speaks to our human desire to find meaning and pattern in chaotic times.

When faced with political polarization, economic uncertainty, and global challenges, there’s comfort in believing these upheavals follow predictable cycles that eventually lead to renewal.

However, it’s important to consider that history rarely follows neat patterns, and countless variables, from individual choices to technological breakthroughs, can alter its course in unpredictable ways.

Perhaps the most valuable aspect of the “Fourth Turning” theory is not its predictive power but its reminder that societies continually move through cycles of growth, decay, and renewal.

Even if the specific timing and patterns aren’t as precise as the theory suggests, it offers a lens that many find meaningful in making sense of our ever-changing world.

In the end, while the “Fourth Turning” may not be a perfect roadmap for the future, it provides a thought-provoking framework for understanding our past and navigating our present.

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