Money Moves & Forex Vibes - Dec. 4, 2025

So like, markets were just totally vibing on Thursday while all the traders were like, "hold up," waiting for next week's big Fed tea ☕️. Oil was the MVP, flexing gains, while Bitcoin was kind of having a meltdown moment, sliding away from its recent high score. 🎢

The econ tea was all over the place—U.S. jobless claims were like, "surprise!", popping up strong, but Canada was a total mood, all weak and meh. Major assets were basically just chilling, except for oil, which decided to glow up on some geopolitical drama. 🌍

Catch up on the forex deets and those spicy economic updates you defs slept on in the last session!

Forex News Headlines & Data:

• Australia Balance of Trade for October 2025: 4.39B (they were hoping for 4.2B; last vibes were 3.94B)
• Australia Exports for October 2025: 3.4% m/m (last record was 7.9% m/m, ouch)
• Australia Imports for October 2025: 2.0% m/m (was just 1.1% m/m before)
• Australia Household Spending for October 2025: 5.6% y/y (forecast was 5.0% y/y; last year was 5.1% y/y); 1.3% m/m (they were expecting 0.2% m/m; previous was 0.2% m/m)
• Swiss Unemployment Rate for November 2025: 2.9% (called it at 2.9%; it's a steady 2.9% mood)
• Swiss procure.ch Manufacturing PMI for November 2025: 49.7 (hopes were 48.5; previous vibe was 48.2)
• Euro area HCOB Construction PMI for November 2025: 45.4 (expected 45.1; previous was 44.0)
• U.K. New Car Sales for November 2025: -1.6% y/y (sad vibes, were hoping for a +1.0% y/y; last time was 0.5% y/y)
• U.K. S&P Global Construction PMI for November 2025: 39.4 (forecast was 45.0; before was 44.1)
• Euro area Retail Sales for October 2025: 1.5% y/y (called it at 1.1% y/y; last was 1.0% y/y); 0.0% m/m (wanted 0.3% m/m; got -0.1% m/m previously)
• U.S. Challenger Job Cuts for November 2025: 71.32k (expected 98.0k; was 153.07k last)
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for November 29, 2025: 191.0k (predicted 220.0k; last was 216.0k)
• Canada Ivey PMI for November 2025: 48.4 (forecast was 52.2; previously was 52.4)
• ECB chief economist Philip Lane dropped the mic on Thursday, saying euro area inflation was a bit spicy but risks are now more chill; recommends ECB stay in-the-know and not freak out over tiny shifts from the 2% goal.

Broad Market Price Action:

Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

Thursday was basically low-key vibes with minimal action. Everyone’s just gearing up for next week's Fed decision and that U.S. inflation scoop on Friday. 📈

The S&P 500 barely moved, closing at 6,855.80, up just a smidge at 0.04%. U.S. stocks were coasting during the Asian hours and kept the chill through London. There was like a mini heart-throb when jobless claims came in strong, but it fizzled out. Meta was out here flexing with a 4% boost on budget-talk buzz, and those small caps were winning with a 1% glow-up, folks thinking Fed might keep supporting for a bit. 🌟

Gold was on a slow-mo grind, up 0.13% to land at about $4,208.60. Just shuffling sideways in a subdued sesh, but still chilling at those high levels 'cause of the safety vibes with Fed rate cuts and world drama. 🛡️

WTI crude oil was the drama queen, popping 1.38% to hover around $59.50. It was cool during Asia hours, then dipped in London before zooming in the U.S. because of some hot gossip with Putin and energy chats with India. Meanwhile, Trump was flexing on Venezuela, which might shake up oil supplies. 🌍💥

Bitcoin was doing the most, dropping 1.50% to about $92,309.80. It was kind of in its feels throughout the session. No dripping tea to spill on Bitcoin, probs just folks cashing out after that swoop from $84,000 to $94,000. 🚀

The 10-year Treasury yield inched up 0.96% to 4.110%, adding like 4 basis points. The yield graph did a short drama burst when jobless claims came in hot, cooling off those heavy Fed cut expectations. 📈

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors

Overlay of USD vs. Majors Forex Chart by TradingView

The USD was like mood swings on Thursday, going back and forth but ending slightly up against the major currency squad thanks to some job market vibes. 💵💪

During Asia hours, the dollar was like, "I'm good" against other currencies, riding on Wednesday's late-game charge. It was pretty chill since traders were just keeping it low-key waiting for the big data drops. 💤

Come London time, the dollar was all over, seeming weaker with Eurozone Retail Sales and the UK Construction PMI missing the vibe. Strangely, this didn't hype up the dollar like usual; either the traders were positioning for U.S. jobless shock factor or just spooked by global slowdown fears. ⏳

The U.S. session was drama.com for the dollar, spiking and dipping during the Initial Jobless Claims release at Level Boss 8:30am ET. 191,000 claims broke a three-year calm—that sent the dollar on a sell-train only to bounce back quicker than a boomerang. Algorithms might have run amok, ngl. 📉

The dollar's rebound was in tune with Canada's disappointing Ivey PMI (48.4 vs. 52.2 expected), hinting that folks were jumping ship to the dollar. By Thursday wrap-up, the dollar was up in the game, standing tall with oil. ⛽️👌

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

• Japan Reuters Tankan Index for December 2025 at 11:00 pm GMT
• Japan Household Spending for October 2025 at 11:30 pm GMT
• Japan Leading Economic Index Prel for October 2025 at 5:00 am GMT
• Germany Factory Orders for October 2025 at 7:00 am GMT
• U.K. Halifax House Price Index for November 2025 at 7:00 am GMT
• Euro area GDP Growth Rate & Employment Change for September 2025 at 10:00 am GMT
• U.K. BBA Mortgage Rate for November 2025 at 10:00 am GMT
• Canada Employment Situation Update for November 2025 at 1:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Factory Orders for October 2025
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December 2025 at 3:00 pm GMT
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index for September 2025 at 3:00 pm GMT
• U.S. Personal Income & Spending for September 2025 at 3:00 pm GMT
• Euro area ECB Lane Speech at 3:10 pm GMT
• U.S. Consumer Credit Change for October 2025 at 8:00 pm GMT

Friday's looking kind of chill during Asia and London times, before hitting us with some U.S. data spice in the PM. All eyes on the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s inflation bae, pegged at a 0.2% increase for a third month in a row, keeping yearly vibes just under 3%. Even though it’s from September (hashtag: gov shutdown), it could still drop last-minute shake-ups for the Fed. 📊🔥

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index's gonna drop some knowledge on how hyped households are hitting year-end—Canadian employment news might throw some shade on the loonie too after Thursday’s forgettable PMI. 📉 Any wildcards here could send folks tweaking their positions for the weekend. But, expect some caution 'cause of the Fed’s radio silence before next Wednesday's juicy meeting.

Keep it 100 out there, forex fam, and peep our Forex Correlation Calculator when you’re ready to sling some risk! 🎯