Money Moves & Forex Vibes – Dec. 10, 2025

Yo, markets just went CRAY after the Fed's *three-peat* rate cut fiesta, and Jerome the homie Powell was like, "Chill, it's just those annoying tariffs, they'll pass." 🤑 And peeps are like, "Okay!" cuz they're vibin' with labor market getting its life together more than the chaotic FOMC vote and lame 2026 forecasts.

Up north, the Bank of Canada's like, "We ain't movin' our rates," reinforcing the whole "major banks are almost done chillin' with cuts" storyline. 🧊

Peep the forex deets and vibes you prob snoozed on during the latest trade sesh!

Forex News Headlines & Deets:

• New Zealand Visitor Arrivals for October 2025: 9.4% y/y (3.0% y/y forecast; 9.6% y/y previous)
• Japan Reuters Tankan Index for December 2025: 10.0 (12.0 forecast; 17.0 previous)
• Japan PPI for November 2025: 0.3% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; 0.4% m/m previous); 2.7% y/y (2.6% y/y forecast; 2.7% y/y previous)
• China Consumer Price Index Growth Rate for November 2025: -0.1% m/m (0.1% m/m forecast; 0.2% m/m previous); 0.7% y/y (0.6% y/y forecast; 0.2% y/y previous)
• China Producer Prices Index growth rate for November 2025: -2.2% y/y (-2.0% y/y forecast; -2.1% y/y previous)
• ECB President Lagarde thinks euro zone's a bit more thicc than expected and she's like, "ECB might update those growth numbers up at the next get-together"
  • ECB’s Villeroy: "Ain't no reason to up those rates soon"
  • Lithuanian central bank boss Simkus: "Rates can prob just chill at 2%"
• U.S. MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate for December 5, 2025: 6.33% (6.32% previous)
  • U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications for December 5, 2025: 4.8% (-1.4% previous)
• U.S. Employment Cost – Wages QoQ for September 30, 2025: 0.8% (0.8% forecast; 1.0% previous)
• U.S. Employment Cost Index QoQ for September 30, 2025: 0.8% (0.8% forecast; 0.9% previous)
• Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision for December 10, 2025: 2.25% (2.25% forecast; 2.25% previous)
• U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for December 5, 2025: -1.81M (0.57M previous)
• FOMC voted 9-3 to drop the federal funds rate a quarter point, now chillin' between 3.5%-3.75%
• The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for 2025 only hinted at one lil' rate cut in 2026, pretty much in line with September
• U.S. Monthly Budget Statement for November 2025: -173.0B (-390.0B forecast; -284.0B previous)

Broad Market Vibes:

Risk vibes totally swagged out on Wed as traders jammed with Powell's "tariffs be transitory, we got this" energy. 📈 Equities and commodities went yoink, dollar and bond yields went yeet.

The S&P 500 flexed 0.65% up to 6,882.9, almost booping its all-time max. It kinda just chilled before the FOMC move, then rocketed post-Powell with his "just normalizing a bit" chat easing the stagflation stress. 💪 Russell 2000 small-caps be poppin' to records, loving that lower-rate life even more than the big boys.

Gold glowed up 0.46% to $4,227, extending its slay despite some ups and downs. Dipped during London's wake, but then the Powell vibes sent it higher with weaker dollar and real yield action. 💰

WTI crude oil rolled as MVP, soaring 1.27% to $58.80. 🛢 The juice got a boost from that unexpected 1.81M barrel draw, way diff from the expected build, showing tight vibes. Wins kept coming during Powell's chat, as he painted a prettier growth pic for 2026. 🖼✌️

Bitcoin decided to sit this one out, slipping 0.47% to chill around $92,209, not catching the broader party wave. It had some pre-FOMC sparkle but flopped down post-Powell, linking that hawkish tone with just one 2026 cut as a sign of less easy money vibes. 🚀🔻

The 10-year Treasury yield lost 0.98% landing near 4.20%, down from AM peaks of 4.21%, not seen since early September. The drop rolled through the U.S. arvo after Powell's sweet inflation talk ("yo tariffs b messin' up our vibes") overrode limited 2026 cut plans. 📉

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors

The U.S. dollar got straight-up ghosted on Wednesday, leaving as the worst player in the currency league. 😂 Initially mixed in Asian and early London vibes but totally tanked after the FOMC and Powell's talkshow.

In Asia, the dollar was like, "Do I vibe bear or bull?" with no major U.S. headlines. Weak USD linked with soft Chinese inflation numbers showing -0.1% CPI vs forecasts and deep PPI plonged to -2.2%, boosting ideas of more aggro central bank help against global deflation scares.

The London leg saw early USD saggin' before it stabilized a sec pre-U.S. wake. Morning drop probs came from peeps adjusting before the Bank of Canada's call and FOMC drop, reducing long-dollar stances given the expected Fed cut. ECB fam hinting rates might just chill brought some euro backup against USD during this time.

In the US, post-2:00 PM EST FOMC vibes yeeted the dollar, spurred even more during Powell's 2:30 PM sesh. The Fed doing a neutral 25-basis-point slash with 3 haters—two wanted no move, one wanted bigger slash—dolla-decline came from Powell's chill tone. He said, "tariffs causing most of those high inflation feels" expected to "chill next year", ticking away at the case for staying steady.

Powell's also hyped the 2026 GDP up to 2.3% from 1.8% and inflation drop to 2.4%, implying the Fed can chill without stressing prices.

What's Next on the Econ Calendar

• New Zealand Manufacturing Sales for September 30, 2025 at 9:45 pm GMT
• Japan BSI Large Manufacturing for December 31, 2025 at 11:50 pm GMT
• U.K. RICS House Price Balance for November 2025 at 12:01 am GMT
• Australia Employment Change & Unemployment Rate for November 2025 at 12:30 am GMT
• Swiss National Bank Interest Rate Decision for December 11, 2025 at 8:30 am GMT
• U.K. BOE Kroszner Speech at 9:00 am GMT
• Canada Balance of Trade for September 2025 at 1:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for December 6, 2025 at 1:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Balance of Trade for September 2025 at 1:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Wholesale Inventories for September 2025 at 3:00 pm GMT
• New Zealand Business NZ PMI for November 2025 at 9:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Balance Sheet for December 10, 2025 at 9:30 pm GMT

Thursday's got two fireball events that might stir the pot a bit, but it'll still be chiller than Wednesday's Fed-fueled saga. 🔥

The Swiss National Bank rate call at 8:30 am GMT's the *it* kid of the day, with everyone glued to see if SNB follows the Fed's chill or drops a surprise move 'cuz their inflation's chillin' near zero. ECB's recent hawkish lines may stir franc drama if SNB throws a curveball.

The Australian employment deets dropping at 12:30 am GMT might dominate Asian vibes, especially with labor market flex influencing RBA's rate czar moves. Big surprises could tweak AUD mood before European vibes kick in.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims at 1:30 pm GMT hit different after Powell highlighted labor market stability for the rate cut. With the shutdown messing with October/November job vibes, weekly claims are the go-to. 🚨 A big claims rise might bring back labor market stress Powell tried easing, shifting dollar vibe and pushing more rate cuts into convo.

Market may handle itself carefully, soaking in the divided FOMC call and Powell’s layered message of "We’re chillin’ till something pops”. More central banker chats—like BoE’s Kroszner—could spill the tea on global rate gossip as policymakers stop finessing too hard with rate cuts.

Stay lit in those forex streets, and peep our Forex Correlation Calculator for that solid trading plan! 💡💵