Money Moves & Forex Vibes – Dec. 11, 2025

Yo, markets were on a rollercoaster ride Thursday, with peeps freaking about AI spending causing some wild moves before the dip-buyers came in clutch, turning stocks green! Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar caught some ZZZs thanks to Fed Chair Powell's chill vibes on Wednesday and some meh labor market numbers. 😴💸

Peep the forex tea and econ updates you might've snoozed on in the latest trading sesh! 🚀

Forex News Headlines & Data:

• New Zealand Manufacturing Sales for September 30, 2025: 0.9% y/y (-0.3% y/y forecast; -0.6% y/y previous)
• Japan BSI Large Manufacturing for December 31, 2025: 4.7% q/q (1.0% q/q forecast; 3.8% q/q previous)
• RICS U.K. House Price Balance for November 2025: -16.0% (-20.0% forecast; -19.0% previous)
• Australia Employment Change for November 2025: -21.3k (5.0k forecast; 42.2k previous)
  • Australia Unemployment Rate for November 2025: 4.3% (4.3% forecast; 4.3% previous)
• Swiss National Bank Interest Rate Decision for December 11, 2025: 0.0% (0.0% forecast; 0.0% previous); don’t think the inflation vibes are enough to drop rates to the negatives
• Bank of England Gov Andrew Bailey said on Thursday they still gotta keep trimming down the Bank of England’s balance sheet
• Canada Balance of Trade for September 2025: 0.15B (-6.0B forecast; -6.32B previous)
• U.S. Balance of Trade for September 2025: -52.8B (-57.0B forecast; -59.6B previous)
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for December 6, 2025: 236.0k (205.0k forecast; 191.0k previous)
• U.S. Wholesale Inventories for September 2025: 0.5% m/m (-0.3% m/m forecast; 0.0% m/m previous)

Broad Market Price Action:

Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

Markets showed major chutzpah on Thursday, shaking off scare vibes about AI investment, as stocks ignored Oracle drama and hit new heights, while safe haven assets were kinda all over the place. 📈🚀

The S&P 500, like, totally bounced back from a sketchy Oracle moment, went up 0.2%, and hit a fresh high near 6,898. Started off weak in the Asian hours, probs dealing with Oracle's earnings drama, then got hit again with crummy U.S. jobless claims at the open. Despite Oracle's epic 10% nosedive (ouch, $100 billion gone), dip-buyers kept showing up. Crunch time in the last two hours was lit, reflecting traders' confidence post-Powell's dovish vibes on labor market over inflation, overshadowing short-term AI drama. 🤔💥

Gold kept glowing, adding 1.07% and chilling around $4,274, briefly hitting peak levels. Got a hit during London hours and went extra during the U.S. jobless claims drop at 09:00 GMT, as Fed cut hopes got real. Despite the risk-on equity rally, it held strong, staying in demand amid tech value questions and stickiness in monetary easing buzz. Real yields stayed put, hinting at safe-haven vibes joining rate cut moves. 🌟💰

WTI crude oil mostly pouted, despite chilling near $57, adding to its weak game. Oil hit lows during Asian and early London, and dipped more in the U.S. session. No direct energy tea, though probs Oracle shooks spread selloff feels, and couldn’t climb all the way back. Ongoing demand freakouts despite OPEC+ putting on a disciplined face might be vibing with that weak streak. 🛢️😬

Bitcoin went on a wild ride but ended on a low note, dropping 0.79% close to $91,668 after some rollercoaster moments. The crypto got the worst sell-off during the Asian sesh around 21:00 GMT, right after Australia's bummer employment numbers (bye-bye 21,300 jobs when expecting a 5,000 boost). Tried rallying during London but stayed under pressure till afternoon U.S., reflecting possible profit snatching after gains or worries about labor market’s impact on risky assets, even with Fed easing hopes. 📉💔

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.24%, chilling around 4.10%, keeping post-FOMC cozy vibes as bond peeps sniffed out Chair Powell's dovey talk. Yields took a dip at the U.S. open matching weak jobless claims numbers, backing Fed easing dreams for 2026. Equities soared, but Treasury yields didn’t budge from lows, hinting bond markets vibe with more rate cuts than Fed’s one cut next year. 🏦📉

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors

The U.S. dollar was feeling not so fly against major currencies on Thursday, extending its post-FOMC bummed-out vibes as traders took in Chair Powell’s dovey chat and mixed econ data still pointing to Fed easing in '26. 📉💸

During the Asian grind, the dollar was low-key up against most major currency gangs, maybe just taking a breather after Wednesday’s major post-FOMC nosedive. But the good vibes were short-lived as Powell's labor market thoughts kept putting the brakes on rate hype. The Aussie dollar took a rough ride, dropping 20 pips right after disappointing November employment news (21,300 job losses versus a hoped 5k gain), with full-time job losses of 56,500. But sellers were quick to jump on that, turning Aussie toasty overall. 😐🚀

In the London session, it was clear skies for dollar decline, losing against major currencies from the European bell up through morning U.S. times. Swiss National Bank’s early chill policy drop didn't shake the room, keeping their rates at 0 and shading no move to negatives. The Swiss franc didn’t shuffle much, falling 0.73% against the dollar, mainly driven by the buck's broader weak game.🐻😴

The dollar’s London a.m. drop probs reflected recalibrations post-FOMC decisions, leaving wiggle room for more easing despite just one planned cut in 2026. Players seemed to bank on a looser path than the official word, keeping hopes alive for two rate cuts next year. 😎💸

At the U.S. open around 13:30 GMT, the dollar's further slide post weak jobless claims showing 236,000 new claims versus the 205,000 expected, which was a hefty miss from last week's 191,000. This labor story kinda drowned out better U.S. trade deficit and Canadian surplus tea, reinforcing Powell's employment stability angle from Wednesday. 🚨

Heading into the London finale around 16:00 GMT, the dollar had a moderate comeback, maybe some short dollar profit snagging or month-end vibes. Closing as a major currency loser, with the DXY index down 0.34% at 98.3, it showed just how skittish the dollar is to U.S. data with a bigger focus on the Fed’s two-pronged gig. Signs of labor slowdown could prompt more dollar dipping even when inflation's still pumped. 📉📊

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

• New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales for November 2025 at 9:45 pm GMT
• Japan Industrial Production Final for October 2025 at 4:30 am GMT
• Germany Inflation Rate Final for November 2025 at 7:00 am GMT
• U.K. GDP for October 2025 at 7:00 am GMT
• U.K. Manufacturing Production for October 2025 at 7:00 am GMT
• France Inflation Rate Final for November 2025 at 7:45 am GMT
• China Monetary Developments for November 2025
• U.K. NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker for November 2025 at 12:00 pm GMT
• Germany Current Account for October 2025 at 1:00 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Paulson Speech at 1:00 pm GMT
• Canada Wholesale Sales Final for October 2025 at 1:30 pm GMT
• Canada Building Permits for October 2025 at 1:30 pm GMT
• Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales for October 2025 at 1:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Hammack Speech at 1:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Goolsbee Speech at 3:35 pm GMT

Friday's lineup is blazing with key U.K. econ data that might stir up the sterling, especially the October GDP and manufacturing stats. With recent Brit jobs looking sketchy, these growth signs will resonate for the BOE’s next moves. Germany's last inflation check should give us ECB insights, but unless a shocker, it’s probably baked in. 📊🇬🇧

The Fed’s talk show starring Paulson, Hammack, and Goolsbee will be juicy for any deep dives on their post-Powell plans. Traders will be tuned in for any speed-read on 2026 easing moves or Thursday’s job claims. China’s money data might also stir commodity currencies if numbers hit hard or soft. 🌏🛢️

Following Oracle's tech drama on AI spending, any fresh hot takes from tech CEOs or analysts on AI ROI might shake things up Friday, even with no major tech results dropping. With a light U.S. data sheet, trading might be all about the charts and pre-weekend cleanup. 📅🤖

Stay lit out there, forex fam, and don't forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator before diving into the action! 🚀🔗