Daily Broad Market Recap – November 20, 2025

Check out the forex news and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading session!

Forex News Headlines & Data:

• Bank of Japan board member Koeda stated that the BOJ should continue normalizing policy and raise interest rates as underlying inflation is near 2%, to avoid future economic distortions.
• Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Hunter noted that the latest inflation data surprised to the upside and said the RBA is watching how housing market activity responds to recent rate cuts, emphasizing these trends will inform future policy decisions.
• Swiss Balance of Trade for October 2025: 2.6B (3.1B forecast; 2.8B previous)
• Germany PPI for October 2025: 0.1% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast; -0.1% m/m previous); -1.8% y/y (-1.6% y/y forecast; -1.7% y/y previous)
• U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Orders for November 2025: -37.0 (-30.0 forecast; -38.0 previous)
• Canada PPI for October 2025: 1.5% m/m (1.3% m/m forecast; 0.8% m/m previous); 6.0% y/y (5.6% y/y forecast; 5.5% y/y previous)
• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for September 2025: 119.0k (50.0k forecast; 22.0k previous)
  • U.S. Unemployment Rate for September 2025: 4.4% (4.3% forecast; 4.3% previous)
  • U.S. Average Hourly Earnings for September 2025: 3.8% y/y (3.7% y/y forecast; 3.7% y/y previous); 0.2% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; 0.3% m/m previous)
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for November 2025: -1.7 (-1.0 forecast; -12.8 previous)
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for November 15, 2025: 220.0k (262.0k forecast; 228.0k previous)
• Euro area Consumer Confidence Flash for November 2025: -14.2 (-14.8 forecast; -14.2 previous)
• U.S. Existing Home Sales for October 2025: 1.2% m/m to 4.1M units (0.9% m/m forecast; 1.5% m/m previous)
• U.S. Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index for November 2025: 18.0 (12.0 forecast; 15.0 previous)
• Fed members weren’t so hot on more rate cuts:
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Hammack warned that further interest rate cuts could prolong elevated inflation and increase financial stability risks, arguing that monetary policy is only marginally restrictive and should remain focused on bringing inflation back to the 2% target
  • Federal Reserve Governor Cook warned that, while the financial system remains resilient with strong household and business balance sheets, there is an increased risk of outsized asset price declines due to elevated valuations and the growth of private credit and hedge fund activity.
  • Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said on Thursday that he is “uneasy” about front-loading too many interest rate cuts, emphasizing that inflation progress has stalled and may be reversing.

Broad Market Price Action:

Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

Thursday delivered one of the most dramatic intraday reversals in months, as risk assets that surged following Nvidia’s impressive earnings report suffered a complete about-face, ultimately closing sharply lower amid renewed concerns about stretched AI valuations and a chorus of hawkish Federal Reserve commentary.

The S&P 500 experienced its biggest intraday swing since April’s tariff turmoil, initially rallying as much as 1.4% in morning trading before reversing course to close down 2.12% at 6,532.5. The benchmark index has now fallen 5% from its recent peak, sliding toward its worst November performance since 2008. The dramatic reversal—spanning 3.6 percentage points from high to low—began around mid-morning and accelerated sharply during the afternoon session, correlating with a series of hawkish speeches from Fed officials including Hammack, Goolsbee, and Cook.

Gold traded nearly flat on the session, settling just 0.01% lower at $4,077.5 per ounce. The precious metal showed resilience during the Asian session decline but failed to capitalize on the afternoon’s risk-off move, possibly as the hawkish Fed rhetoric and rising real yields offset traditional safe-haven demand.

WTI crude oil declined 1.13% to $58.5 per barrel, trading net positive through most of the London session before weakening alongside broader risk assets during the US afternoon. The persistent pressure on oil likely reflected concerns about demand destruction as growth worries intensified.

Bitcoin suffered one of the session’s steepest declines, plunging 3.29% to $87,522.0. The cryptocurrency showed strength during Asian hours but began a sharp and sustained selloff around the US open that accelerated dramatically during the afternoon Fed commentary, suggesting traders viewed the hawkish central bank pivot as particularly damaging to speculative assets.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 1.88% to 4.1%, declining from early session highs as the equity market reversal likely drove safe-haven flows into government bonds despite the hawkish Fed rhetoric.

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:

Overlay of USD vs. Majors Forex Chart by TradingView

The U.S. dollar closed Thursday’s session with modest net gains against most major currencies after a volatile day that saw the greenback dip twice before rebounding, ultimately strengthening as hawkish Federal Reserve commentary overshadowed mixed employment data.

During the Asian session, the dollar leaned net positive against the major currencies, maintaining a defensive bid amid ongoing concerns about global growth and ahead of the delayed US employment report.

The London session brought the first test of dollar strength, with the greenback dipping at the European open before staging a rebound. European data provided little direction—Germany’s PPI came in slightly below expectations while UK CBI orders remained deeply negative—leaving the dollar to likely trade on broader positioning flows.

The US session delivered the day’s key catalysts and sharpest price swings. The dollar initially weakened following the release of September employment data at 8:30 AM ET, which showed payrolls rising 119,000—well above the 50,000 forecast—but also revealed the unemployment rate ticking higher to 4.4%. The mixed signals created brief volatility, with the dollar particularly vulnerable against the British pound, which posted the session’s strongest performance against the greenback.

However, the dollar’s trajectory shifted decisively during the afternoon as a parade of Federal Reserve officials delivered notably hawkish messages. Cleveland Fed President Hammack warned that further rate cuts could prolong elevated inflation and increase financial stability risks. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed unease about inflation progress stalling. Fed Governor Cook highlighted vulnerabilities from elevated asset valuations and private credit growth. This collective hawkish turn appeared to outweigh the labor market softening signals, pushing odds of a December rate cut down to 39.5% vs. 50.1% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

By the session close, the dollar traded net positive overall against all major currencies except the British pound, which gained 0.12% against the greenback. The euro weakened 0.09% to close at $1.1518, while the yen continued its slide despite hawkish commentary from BOJ board member Koeda earlier in the session, with USD/JPY rising 0.19%. The dollar’s resilience despite mixed economic data underscored how the Fed’s messaging shift toward a more cautious easing stance seemed to dominate currency market dynamics in Thursday’s volatile session.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

• Japan CPI Growth Rate for October 2025 at 11:30 pm GMT
• U.K. GfK Consumer Confidence for November 2025 at 12:01 am GMT
• Japan S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash for November 2025 at 12:30 am GMT
• New Zealand Credit Card Spending for October 2025 at 2:00 am GMT
• U.K. Retail Sales for October 2025 at 7:00 am GMT
• France Business Confidence for November 2025 at 7:45 am GMT
• ECB President Lagarde Speech at 8:30 am GMT
• Euro area HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash for November 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
• U.K. S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash for November 2025 at 9:30 am GMT
• Fed Williams Speech at 12:30 pm GMT
• Swiss National Bank Schlegel Speech at 12:40 pm GMT
• Canada New Housing Price Index for October 2025 at 1:30 pm GMT
• Canada Retail Sales Prel for October 2025 at 1:30 pm GMT
• Fed Barr Speech at 1:30 pm GMT
• Fed Jefferson Speech at 1:45 pm GMT
• Fed Logan Speech at 2:00 pm GMT
• U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash for November 2025 at 2:45 pm GMT
• U.S. Wholesale Inventories for August 2025 at 3:00 pm GMT
• UoM Consumer Sentiment Index for November 2025 at 3:00 pm GMT
• Michigan Inflation Expectations Final for November 2025 at 3:00 pm GMT

Friday’s calendar is loaded with potential market movers, headlined by flash PMI readings from major economies that will provide critical insight into global economic momentum heading into year-end. The UK retail sales data will be particularly scrutinized following Thursday’s dismal CBI orders report, with any further weakness likely to pressure sterling and reinforce expectations for additional Bank of England rate cuts.

The US session brings another wave of Federal Reserve speakers—Williams, Barr, Jefferson, and Logan—whose commentary will be closely parsed for any reinforcement or pushback against Thursday’s hawkish tilt. Following Thursday’s divided messaging and the dramatic market reaction, traders will be alert to whether the Fed is coalescing around a December pause or if disagreement persists. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data could also spark volatility, particularly given renewed Fed concerns about stalled inflation progress.

Any fresh developments on geopolitical tensions or unexpected policy shifts from major central banks could further roil markets that remain on edge following Thursday’s AI valuation anxiety and hawkish Fed pivot.

Stay frosty out there, forex friends, and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when planning to take on risk!